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- Price band
- ₹857 – ₹900
- Issue size
- ₹2,834 Cr
- Lot size
- 16 sh
- Bidding
- 9 – 11 Feb
- Grey market
- −₹28
Face value ₹1.00
36% fresh capital
₹14,400 minimum
Lists 16 Feb 2026
Unofficial quote
The question this issue poses
In one sentence
Fractal came to market as the only listed way to own a pure-play enterprise AI business — its RHP states outright that no company anywhere operates a similar model — and charged 67.37× FY25 diluted earnings for that scarcity; eight months later the stock sits 22.19% below the issue price, so the open question is what an unbenchmarkable premium is actually worth.
IPOVista score
How this issue scores, and why
Every pillar opens to show the raw metric, the curve it was mapped through, the sub-score and its weight. Disagree with the weighting if you like — the arithmetic is all here.
52Mixed
IPOVista score 52 out of 100, graded Mixed.IPOVista score
A trade-off in both directions
84% of the scoring model was backed by disclosed data for Fractal, giving medium confidence. Weights for anything missing were redistributed rather than scored as zero.
PillarScoreWeight
Below the line: market sentiment. Capped at 8 of 100 points so a hot grey market can tilt a score but never carry one.
Read this before the number
Grey market data is unofficial
GMP is an unregulated, unverifiable over-the-counter quote. It is shown as a sentiment indicator and carries no settlement guarantee.
The IPOVista Score is a transparent summary of disclosed fundamentals and issue terms. It is research, not investment advice, and it cannot predict listing performance.
The company
What the business actually does
Founded 2000 · Goregaon (East), Mumbai, Maharashtra · 5,722 employees
Fractal sells enterprise AI. Very large global companies hire it to build the models, data pipelines and decision systems behind pricing, demand forecasting, supply-chain planning, customer experience and risk management. Founded in Mumbai in 2000, it employed 5,722 people as of 30 September 2025 and served 122 'Must Win Clients' — enterprises with more than US$10 bn of annual revenue, more than US$20 bn of market capitalisation, or more than 30 mn end-customers — including Citibank, Costco, Franklin Templeton, Mars, Mondelez, Nationwide, Nestle and Philips. Alongside services it builds its own models and platforms: Cogentiq, its agentic AI platform, plus Kalaido.ai (text-to-image), Vaidya.ai (medical multi-modal models), Asper.ai, Eugenie.ai and Senseforth.ai. It held 28 registered patents and 38 patent applications as of 19 January 2026, and spent 5.8% of FY25 revenue on research and development.
Two reportable segments, of which one is effectively the whole company. Fractal.ai generated ₹2,703.7 Cr of FY25 revenue from operations against ₹64.4 Cr for Fractal Alpha, and sells AI services and products under master service agreements with a separate statement of work per engagement, so revenue remains largely linked to people deployed. Fractal Alpha is a set of separately managed independent AI businesses aimed at the same Must Win Clients and at new geographies; ₹355.1 Cr of the fresh issue was earmarked for its R&D and sales and marketing. Revenue is concentrated by both client and geography: the top ten clients were 53.8% of Fractal.ai segment revenue in FY25 and 54.2% in H1 FY26, with one client at 8.2%, and North America supplied 66% of FY25 revenue against 18% from Europe and 16% from Asia-Pacific. Growth has been steady — revenue from operations rose from ₹1,985.4 Cr in FY23 to ₹2,765.4 Cr in FY25 and ₹3,300 Cr in FY26 — but profit has not: FY23's ₹194.4 Cr PAT rested on a ₹523.9 Cr exceptional gain, FY24 was a ₹54.7 Cr loss, and FY25's ₹220.6 Cr was the first clean full-year profit of the three.
What makes it hard to copy
The RHP states there is no listed company in India or globally operating a comparable business model, and the specifics behind that claim are 28 registered patents and 38 patent applications as of 19 January 2026 plus 122 'Must Win Clients' — enterprises above US$10 bn of revenue, US$20 bn of market capitalisation or 30 mn end-customers — with relationships averaging more than eight years among the top ten.
Where the revenue comes from
Share of revenue by reportable segment, latest full year
- Fractal.ai97.8%
- Fractal Alpha2.3%
Hover or focus a segment for its share and what it covers.
Who buys from it
Citibank, N.A.CostcoFranklin TempletonMarsMondelezNationwideNestlePhilipsC3 AI
Customers named in the prospectus or by the company. A short list is not automatically a risk, but concentration is — check the customer-concentration risk factor before assuming a marquee name means stability.
Where it operates
- Offices24
Mumbai · Bengaluru · Gurugram · Chennai · Pune · Noida · Indore · New York · Bellevue · Palo Alto · London · Sydney · Eindhoven · Kyiv · Abu Dhabi · Dubai · Singapore
91.6% of revenue is earned outside India.
Markets served
United StatesCanadaBrazilMexicoUnited KingdomNetherlandsGermanyFranceIndiaUnited Arab EmiratesSingaporeAustralia
Who runs it
- Srikanth VelamakanniGroup Chief Executive and Executive Vice-Chairman · since 2000Co-founder, promoter and Whole-Time Director; on the board since the company was incorporated on 28 March 2000. Current five-year term runs to 29 June 2029.
- Pranay AgrawalChief Executive Officer · since 2000Co-founder and promoter; chief executive of Fractal USA and a Non-Executive Director of the listed company, on the board since 28 March 2000.
- Rohan HaldeaChairman · since 2019Non-Executive Chairman since 15 February 2019 and the nominee of Apax, whose Quinag Bidco vehicle was the largest seller in the offer for sale.
The company on paper
- Legal name
- Fractal Analytics Limited
- Incorporated
- 28 Mar 2000
- CIN
- L72400MH2000PLC125369
- Sector
- Information Technology · Enterprise data, analytics and artificial intelligence
- Employees
- 5,722
- Registered office
- Level 7, Commerz II, International Business Park, Oberoi Garden City, Off W. E. Highway, Goregaon (E), Mumbai 400 063, Maharashtra
- Statutory auditor
- B S R & Co. LLP, Chartered Accountants
- Promoters
- Srikanth Velamakanni, Pranay Agrawal, Chetana Kumar, Narendra Kumar Agrawal, Rupa Krishnan Agrawal
- Promoter holding, pre-issue
- 18.2%
- Promoter holding, post-issue
- 17.0%
- Website
- fractal.ai
The numbers
Financial performance
Revenue has compounded at 18.5% a year across the 4 reported financial years.
Revenue and profit
Figures in ₹ crore, as reported in the prospectus. Interim quarters are not annualised.
- Revenue
- Profit after tax
Margin trend
Profit and operating margin as a percentage of revenue
- Net margin
- EBITDA margin
Net worth and borrowings
At each period end, in ₹ crore. Gearing below each period is borrowings over net worth, from these same figures.
- Net worth
- Total borrowings
Profit against cash generated
Profit after tax and net cash from operating activities, in ₹ crore. The figure under each period is cash generated per ₹100 of profit.
- Profit after tax
- Operating cash flow
Above 100% the business collects more cash than it books as profit. Persistently below it, growth is being funded out of working capital.
The price
Valuation
Ratios as disclosed in the prospectus, calculated at the upper end of the price band. P/E is always shown on post-issue earnings so issues stay comparable with each other.
Always post-issue, so issues stay comparable with each other
What you pay
Earnings and sales behind one share, and the multiple the band asks for them.
- EPS, pre-issue (FY25)
- ₹13.36
- EPS, post-issue
- —
- Price / sales
- 5.33× – 5.60×
- Net asset value per share
- ₹116.00
What it earns on what it has
Returns and margins. These are the figures that say whether the multiple above is deserved.
- Return on net worth
- 12.6%
- Return on capital employed
- 13.3%
- EBITDA margin
- 12.7%
- Net margin
- 8.7%
What it owes
Gearing at the latest balance-sheet date.
- Debt to equity
- 0.15×
Valuation against listed peers
P/E against operating margin
The prospectus for this issue does not name a listed peer group, or it has not been captured yet.
The terms
How the issue is structured
36% of the money raised is fresh capital that goes to the company; the rest goes to shareholders selling down.
- Fresh issue
- ₹1,024 Cr
- Offer for sale
- ₹1,810 Cr
- Total issue size
- ₹2,834 Cr
- Shares offered in the OFS
- 2,01,15,554
- Pre-issue shares outstanding
- 16,05,56,718
- Employee discount
- ₹85 per share
Who the shares are reserved for
Share of the net offer set aside for each investor category
- Employee reservation7,36,196 sh
Select a category to see who bids in it and how allotment works there.
Percentages are of the net offer, which excludes any employee or shareholder reservation.
Use of proceeds
Stated objects of the fresh issue, largest first
- Invested in growth
- Repairs the balance sheet
- Funding inorganic growth through unidentified acquisitions and other strategic initiatives, and general corporate purposes — amount not quantified in the prospectus
Hover or focus an object to see whether that spending grows the business or repairs the balance sheet.
67% of the quantified proceeds is earmarked for growth; the rest repairs the balance sheet or is unallocated.
Demand
What the market is bidding
Subscription is hard exchange data. Grey-market premium is not — it is an unofficial quote, shown because readers want it and labelled because it deserves the label.
Subscription by category
Cumulative bid multiples at the end of day 3. Anchor allocations are excluded.
Hover or focus a category to see who bids in it.
Total subscription2.81×
A category subscribed above 1× is oversubscribed; allotment in that category then runs as a lottery or on a proportionate basis.
Anchor book
Anchor investors commit one working day before the issue opens and are locked in for 30 and 90 days. Who turns up here is the first real signal of institutional appetite.
- Raised from anchors
- ₹1,248 Cr
- Anchor investors
- 52
- 50% lock-in ends
- 13 Mar 2026
- Remaining lock-in ends
- 12 May 2026
Notable participants
Morgan Stanley Investment FundsAshoka WhiteOak Emerging Markets FundsJupiter Global FundGoldman Sachs Bank EuropeSociete Generale - ODIFlumen Investment TrustOptimix Wholesale Global Emerging Markets Share TrustNeo Prime FundNeo Secondaries Fund
Grey market premium
Premium quoted over the ₹900 cut-off price. Unofficial and unregulated — sentiment, not a forecast.
Unofficial
The grey market is an informal, unregulated market with no clearing house and no obligation to settle. A premium here does not guarantee a listing gain, and quotes can move sharply — this one ranged −₹28 to −₹12, a spread of ₹16, across the period shown.
Outcome
How it actually listed
- Issue price
- ₹900.00
- Listed at
- ₹876.00
- Listing gain
- down 2.7%
- Since listing
- down 20.2%
As of 13 Oct 2026
Work it out
What this means for one application
Three calculations, each stating the assumption it rests on.
What one application costs
Shares are applied for in whole lots at the cut-off price. The full amount is blocked in your bank account under ASBA, not debited, until allotment.
Lots
1
- Shares applied for
- 16
- At cut-off price
- ₹900.00
- Amount blocked
- ₹14,400
One lot is 16 shares at ₹14,400. Retail applications are capped at ₹2,00,000, which allows up to 13 lots here — apply for more and you are bidding as a non-institutional investor instead.
Odds of getting an allotment
When the retail category is oversubscribed, SEBI requires a lottery for the minimum lot. Every application has the same chance, whatever its size.
~91%
chance of one lot, per application
- Retail subscription
- 1.10×
- Applicants per share available
- 1.1× the retail quota
This is an estimate of a lottery, not a prediction. Actual odds depend on the final basis of allotment, how many applications were at the minimum lot, and rejections for technical reasons. Applying from multiple distinct PANs is the only legitimate way to hold more tickets in that lottery.
What it actually did
This issue has listed, so there is a real number instead of a prediction. The grey-market premium is shown beside it for comparison.
₹876.00
listed at, −2.7% against the issue price
- Issue price
- ₹900.00
- Premium said
- ₹-28.00 · −3.1%
- If allotted 16 shares
- ₹-384
The grey market called −3.1% and the stock did −2.7% — a miss of 0.4 percentage points.
Our read
The case for and against
Grounded only in figures disclosed in the prospectus. This is analysis, not a recommendation.
What works
- Revenue from operations compounded from ₹1,985.4 Cr in FY23 to ₹2,765.4 Cr in FY25 and ₹3,300 Cr in FY26, and H1 FY26's ₹1,559.0 Cr was already 19.9% above the ₹1,300.7 Cr of the same half in FY25.
- Margins turned decisively on an operating basis: EBITDA excluding other income and exceptional items went from −₹116.4 Cr in FY23 to ₹73.4 Cr in FY24 and ₹349.9 Cr in FY25, a 12.65% margin, while RoCE moved from −8.2% to 13.3% over the same three years.
- Cash followed profit — operating cash flow went from −₹30.6 Cr in FY23 to ₹159.5 Cr in FY24 and ₹397.0 Cr in FY25, so FY25 earnings of ₹220.6 Cr were more than covered.
- The balance sheet is barely levered: total borrowings of ₹266.2 Cr against net worth of ₹1,748.3 Cr at FY25, roughly 0.15×, which is why only ₹264.9 Cr of the ₹1,023.5 Cr fresh issue went to repaying a subsidiary's debt and the rest to growth.
- Client quality is real: 122 Must Win Clients, an average relationship of more than eight years with the top ten, and an anchor book of ₹1,248.26 Cr placed with 52 investors at the ₹900 cap price.
What to weigh against it
- The profit record is erratic. FY23's reported ₹194.4 Cr PAT included a ₹523.9 Cr exceptional gain and the business lost ₹210.5 Cr before exceptional items that year; FY24 lost ₹54.7 Cr outright; only FY25's ₹220.6 Cr and FY26's ₹287 Cr are clean.
- Concentration cuts both ways — the top ten clients were 53.8% of Fractal.ai revenue in FY25 and 54.2% in H1 FY26, one client alone was 8.2%, and 66% of FY25 revenue came from North America.
- There is no peer P/E to anchor the valuation at all: the RHP states there are no listed companies in India or globally operating a similar business model, so the 67.37× asked at the cap price could only be argued against adjacent IT services names.
- Demand was institution-led and thin everywhere else. The book closed at 2.81× with QIB at 4.41×, but NII at 1.11×, retail at 1.10× and the employee quota undersubscribed at 0.65×.
- The grey market priced a discount before listing — −₹12 on 14 February and −₹28 on both 15 and 16 February — and the stock did open 2.67% below issue at ₹876, closing its first session at ₹847.15.
- Cash conversion is lumpy within the year: H1 FY26 operating cash flow was −₹21.4 Cr against ₹397.0 Cr for the whole of FY25.
Easy to miss in the prospectus
- FY23 EBITDA of −₹116.4 Cr sitting below FY23 profit of +₹194.4 Cr is not a charting error. EBITDA here is operating-only, while the reported profit rests on a one-off ₹523.9 Cr exceptional gain booked below the operating line — mostly the non-cash ₹541.0 Cr gain on deconsolidating Qure.ai, whose retained stake was remeasured to fair value after Fractal's holding was diluted by a new share issue rather than by any sale.
- Fractal Alpha is the stated growth engine and took ₹355.1 Cr of the fresh issue, but it was only ₹64.4 Cr of FY25 revenue against ₹2,703.7 Cr for Fractal.ai — it has to become a segment before it can justify that allocation.
- The absence of listed peers is why this record's peers array is empty: the valuation score has no peer P/E table to work from, which is a material gap rather than missing data.
- Employee stock option expense was ₹158.7 Cr in FY23, ₹96.3 Cr in FY24 and ₹79.8 Cr in FY25, charged above EBITDA; its future level moves reported margins by several hundred basis points on its own.
- Per-share history needs the restated figures: a 1:4 bonus issue in July 2025 and the January 2026 conversion of 4,523,604 CCPS into 22,618,020 equity shares mean unadjusted historical EPS is not comparable.
- Anchor lock-ins released on 13 March and 12 May 2026, and the stock has fallen from ₹876 at listing to ₹700.25 on 12 October 2026 against a 52-week high of ₹1,118 and a low of ₹696.30 — it is trading within 1% of that low.
Straight from the filing
Read it yourself
Every figure on this page comes out of these. Go and check them.
Served by the issuer, the exchange or the regulator — never a copy hosted here, so what you open is the filing itself.
The paperwork
Who is running the issue
- Lead managers
- Kotak Mahindra Capital Company Limited, Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited, Axis Capital Limited, Goldman Sachs (India) Securities Private Limited
- Registrar
- MUFG Intime India Private Limited
How these figures were checked
Reconciled to Fractal's own prospectus and to exchange disclosures, then cross-checked against 10 other independently published compilations of the same filing. Where a stated ratio disagreed with the line items it should come from, the disagreement was settled against the prospectus itself.
- Fractal Analytics Limited — Red Herring Prospectus, dated 2 February 2026 · read 12 Oct 2026
The prospectus is the authoritative document. Check anything that matters against it before you act.
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